Question

In emerging economies in Africa and other regions, large foreign banks that were set up during the colonial era have long played a major economic role. These institutions have tended to confine their business to the wealthier of banks’ potential customers. But development of these countries’ economies requires financing of the small businesses that dominate their manufacturing, farming, and services sectors. So economic growth will be likely to occur if local banks take on this portion of the financial services markets, since __________.

Which of the following completions would produce the strongest argument?

(This question is from Official Guide. Therefore, because of copyrights, the complete question cannot be copied here. The question can be accessed at GMAT Club)

Solution

Understanding the passage.

In emerging economies in Africa and other regions, large foreign banks that were set up during the colonial era have long played a major economic role. 

The gist of the sentence is that in some economies, some banks have played a major economic role.

Which economies? Emerging economies in Africa and other regions

Which banks? Large foreign banks set up during the colonial era

These institutions have tended to confine their business to the wealthier of banks’ potential customers. 

These larger foreign banks have mostly limited their business to the wealthier of their potential customers.

But development of these countries’ economies requires financing of the small businesses that dominate their manufacturing, farming, and services sectors.

The “but” indicates a contrast. The contrast is that while these large foreign banks have mostly limited themselves to wealthier customers, financing of small businesses is required for the development of these countries’ economies. 

So economic growth will be likely to occur if local banks take on this portion of the financial services markets, since __________.

The author concludes in this statement – “so” indicates the conclusion.

The author says that economic growth will likely occur if local banks finance these small businesses.

The sentence ends with “since.” So, we need to find a reason.

Reason to support what?

This is where a lot of people go wrong.

Many people think that we need to support that “local banks finance these small businesses.”

That’s wrong.

If we’re thinking so, we haven’t understood the complete statement.

We need to support that if local banks finance these small businesses, economic growth will occur.

Thus, we need to support that X will lead to Y.

X: local banks finance these small businesses

Y: economic growth will occur

Many of us incorrectly understand that we need to support X.

Gap Analysis

The conclusion is that economic growth will occur if local banks finance these small businesses.

The conclusion is supported by the reasoning that

  1. development of these countries’ economies requires financing of the small businesses that dominate their manufacturing, farming, and services sectors
  2. Large foreign banks are not focusing on these businesses

To identify the gaps, we need to ask ourselves the question: what could be the reasons we cannot be sure of the conclusion even though the premises hold?

I can think of two reasons (gaps in the argument):

  1. These small businesses are already well-financed by some means and don’t need financing.
  2. Even if these businesses get financing, countries’ economic growth may not occur. For example, if they get financing, they might grow by snatching business from the big companies; overall, there may not be any growth in business in the country.

Option Evaluation

(A) Incorrect.

This option has ZERO impact on the argument. 

The option compares local banks and foreign banks in terms of how much they strive to diversify their investment. How much local banks diversify their investments has no relevance to the argument. Remember, we don’t need to strengthen that local banks will finance these businesses. We need to strengthen that if local banks finance these small businesses, economic growth will occur.

(B) Correct

The option says that certain types of small businesses (farming and manufacturing) contribute to economic growth if they get adequate funding. This option addresses the second gap we identified.

After knowing option B, we believe more in the conclusion that economic growth will likely occur if these small businesses are financed by local banks.

It’s important to be aware that we’re looking for an option that INCREASES our belief in the conclusion; we’re NOT looking for an option that GUARANTEES the conclusion.

(C) Incorrect

This option has ZERO IMPACT on the argument.

The option indicates that large foreign banks can also profitably serve these small businesses. Does this support that financing of small businesses by local banks will likely lead to economic growth?

No.

Whether there are ways other than local banks to finance these small businesses has NO IMPACT on the argument. Remember, we don’t need to strengthen that local banks will finance these businesses. We need to strengthen that if local banks finance these small businesses, economic growth will occur.

(D) Incorrect

 Let me create an extreme version of this option:

D’: ALL small businesses are among the wealthier customers of foreign banks in emerging economies

I understand that D’ doesn’t make a lot of common sense. How can all small businesses be among the wealthier customers of foreign banks? 

However, let’s entertain D’ for our discussion’s sake.

D’ will weaken the argument since it is around the first gap we identified (What if these small businesses already have enough financing?). If all of these businesses are already served by large foreign banks, then financing of these businesses by local banks will not lead to any additional help to these businesses, and thus we don’t have logic to expect economic growth.

Now, let’s talk about option D, which talks about “some” small businesses. ‘Some’ means at least one.

How does knowing that at least one small business is already served by large foreign banks impact the argument?

It weakens the argument. However, the impact is so small that it is almost no impact. Why so small impact? 

Because we have guaranteed information about only one small business – that is served by foreign banks. 

How much can this information impact the argument? 

Hardly. The local banks can serve other small businesses, whose growth can lead to economic growth. 

(E) Incorrect

This option has NO IMPACT on the argument.

If local banks are less risk-averse than foreign banks, we can understand that local banks will be open to taking more risks than foreign banks. If so, will they be more likely to lend to small businesses than foreign banks are?

Yes, if we consider that small businesses are riskier than big businesses. (Can we consider that? I think so. I think that, in general, small businesses are riskier than big businesses.)

So, this option increases the belief that local banks will lend to small businesses.

However, what we need to strengthen is that if the local banks lend to small businesses, economic growth will occur. In other words, we need to strengthen “If X, then Y”. In other words, we need to strengthen “X will lead to Y”.

This option strengthens the idea that X will occur. However, saying so has NO impact on whether X will lead to Y.

For example, if I say, “If Raj takes classes from CJ, he’ll get a great GMAT score”, my statement cannot be strengthened by saying that Raj will indeed take classes from CJ.

Thus, option E has ZERO IMPACT on the argument.

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